On June 1st, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Energy Bureau jointly issued a "Notice on 2018 Power Generations", emphasizing the new construction scale of optimized photovoltaic power generation, and speeding up the sales of photovoltaic power generation, reducing subsidy strength , Improve the photovoltaic power electricity price mechanism, speed up the radical electricity price. This policy has caused strong shock in the industry.
The first trading day after the announcement of the new policy, the total market value of the photovoltaic stock is as high as 51.778 billion; from June 4th to June 6th trading day, the total market value of the photovoltaic stock market totaled 6.5406 billion. 6.54406 billion evaporation! 31 photosensitive stocks all fell! Today 20 companies have finally stopped falling!
In the face of sudden changes, the photovoltaic enterprises have taken response, or the group, or increase, or adjust, but the panic and stock market caused by the New Deal is just short-lived. By 9, the photovoltaic stock has Stopping, the industry's emotions are also slightly stable, starting to treat new politics with rational eyes.
Some professionals believe that after the New Deal, there is a price of the Internet is the real spring of photovoltaic development. They also believe that quenching a number of real-quality companies in the photovoltaic industry will further improve in this change. In the medium and long-term, the next golden period of photovoltaic development will soon come. Among these people who eat optimistic attitudes, there are experts, and have an entrepreneur who is full of confident in the future.
Dependent subsidies are limited, distributed power plants and household power plants are also limited, and only projects that do not rely on subsidies can grow in the future, then from the perspective of subsidies, what opportunities in the photovoltaic market? International energy network / PV head strip from industry experts and entrepreneurs in the view of the new growth opportunities in the future PV field, spherling the top ten market effects.
In general, in addition to the company's technology upgrade, it is generally optimistic about the expansion of energy storage, operation and maintenance, industrial and commercial roof, mobile energy, transmission and power network, smart microcontrol, high pressure, and various application models.
Energy storage: household energy storage or wide application
At present, China has become the first largest country in new energy, the photovoltaic machine for three consecutive years, and the largest electric car market in the world, last year, 40% of the world, when a large number of new energy access grids It will bring an impact to the grid. The emergence of energy storage happens to solve the problem caused by new energy development, so new energy supporting energy storage is also considered an ultimate solution for human energy.
In March 2017, the National Energy Administration issued the "Guidance Opinions on the Promotion of Energy Storage Technology and Industrial Development", which gives energy storage technology support, and the energy storage project is subsidized. In 2018, it was considered to be China's energy storage.
At present, there are four main applications in my country's power market: renewable energy grid, auxiliary service, grid side and user sides. According to the CNESA project library data, until the end of 2017, my country's electrochemical energy storage is 29%, 9%, 3%, and 59% of the installation ratio of the renewable energy, the mounting, the grid side, and the user side, which is auxiliary. The service and user side is the most favorable potential for energy storage applications, which is expected to take the lead in achieving commercial.
There is currently two business models that are widely used in user-side storage. This model has two main profit sources: using peak valley price difference to achieve arbitrage and electricity management. With the decline in energy storage technology,“Energy storage +”The application is open, and the energy storage is expected to enter the explosive period in advance.
Distribution Network: An important part of the energy network
So much distributed photovoltaic is installed in the Middle East, bringing impact and impact on the operation of the distribution network. In general, the impact on the operation of the grid is to increase the pressure on electric balance and peak. A voltage problem for reactive balance is particularly prominent. The pressure on the distribution operation is increasing, so that the predictive difficulty of the entire load will be larger.
To resolve these problems, you need to build a distributed energy network to resolve the corresponding problems by using the rapid development of energy Internet technologies. Previous China's grid is a strong weaknescent grid, the future construction goal, combined with the construction of energy Internet, building a strong grid, and distribution network to combine the construction of energy Internet, but also built to the world's most advanced level.
There are some key technologies that need to be greatly broken. Including the technology of power generation, including the technology of the grid, advanced energy storage technology mentioned in the first half, and the advanced control technology of the distribution network, the power grid, these four core technologies need to be a breakthrough.
The construction of the energy network of the network is also an important part of the global energy Internet construction, which can access wind power and solar intermittent energy, access to all levels of power grids.
Special high pressure: solve photovoltaic power generation
Abandoning the light limitation has always been one of the main problems that plague the development of the photovoltaic industry. The development of special high pressure technology may reach the development of centralized photovoltaic power plants in the northwest. It is understood that more than 70% of electricity consumption in my country is concentrated in the central and eastern regions, but the central and eastern regions lack solar resources and the construction of large-scale photovoltaic plants.
If my country's special high voltage power delivery channel is well-established, the deposits in the northwest area will be able to deliver to the Middle East, thereby solving the anti-PV power resistance.
The special high-voltage grid is obvious than existing grid advantages, and the special high-voltage grid has a greater power transmission capacity and more excellent conveying capabilities, and the special high voltage grid has lower network loss and engineering cost. At present, my country's special high pressure project is also in the construction of in-intensive drums. It is understood that“Thirteenth five”During the period, the State Grid will accelerate the construction current“Four times”10 projects, followed by follow-up“Five-year-old”Special high pressure project, then start construction before 2018“Ten two straight”Special high pressure project.
Self-use industrial power plant without subsidies
According to the electricity price of 0.8 yuan / kWh, the first year is 2.5%, then attenuate 0.7% per year, the operation and maintenance cost is 1% initial investment, and the income of a 1MW self-employed and commercial project is as follows:
As a result, all self-contained or most of the distributed power plant projects, or have investment value and income space. In fact, we have realized the price of the industrial and commercial electricity, just in the field of households, due to the proportion of residents' electricity price and power generation, there is no need to cancel the subsidy, and there is no access.
Energy Internet: Maximum achievement
Energy Internet is a strong smart grid with special high voltage grid for backbone, interconnect, can be simply summarized“Extra high voltage grid + smart grid + cleaning energy”The project has policy subsidies. Internet + energy is mainly among energy development, with emerging technologies such as large data, cloud computing and data mining to achieve system optimization, resource optimization configuration, and efficient operation. Integrated energy services are mainly energy services that integrate value-added services such as energy-saving services or energy efficiency services.
For photovoltaic power generation, the energy internet can be developed deeply on the information system of photovoltaic power generation. By collecting data on the design, operation of the photovoltaic power generation system, and forms large data with the weather, geographic data integration, and on this basis Load prediction, power generation prediction and operation control, open and optimize energy production and consumer end operating efficiency.
In addition, the structure of the global energy Internet will play a positive impact on photovoltaic power generation. Future photovoltaic electricity can not only achieve long-distance delivery, but in the intelligent operation of energy, the maximum degree of realization .
Mobile energy: important direction for the development of solar industry
The technology of mobile energy has matured, and the core equipment has achieved localization. Thin film solar energy is the core technology of mobile energy. In the past year, the R & D and mass production conversion rates continue to improve, and it has already had industrialization conditions. The thin film solar chip is more widely used in the field of application, and it is an important direction in the future solar technology and industry development.
For Hanneng mobile energy,“531”The introduction of New Deal is both challenges and opportunities. The future of photovoltaic will be affordable, and the development of advanced, efficient technical products must be continuously encouraged, while thin film solar technology will be able to usher in explosive growth. Internet, gave birth to the arrival of mobile energy, there is a very broad development space.
Intelligent micro network: solve distributed energy amazing problems
The smart micrognet is an effective way to solve distributed energy amazing problems, and the state has subsidy policies. Intelligent micrognet can be combined with various types of pilots such as energy Internet, multi-complementary and incremental distribution network, and achieve integrated energy services by constructing hair, storage, distribution, use, and control integrated energy solutions within a certain area. .
At present, the business model of the microgrid has matured, in Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places, some of the main income sources of investors are the peaks. Peaks are good for investors and owners, they can make energy quality governance, power factor adjustment and slopes, can improve power factor, reduce some equipment investment, can also be used as a backup power supply, reduce UPS Invest. Although a single storage power plant system is relatively simple, its business model is most mature, and the promotion effect is also the best. At present, from Jinfeng Technology, Tianhe, Copuda has this technology and application.
The second batch of poverty alleviation market in the second half of the year: the last piece of cake
If the 10GW distributed scale is a established fact, there is also a block market for private enterprises in the second half of the year, that is, the poverty alleviation, poverty alleviation project, although Henan, Anhui and other places have been terminated in the first half of the year, there are some irregular behaviors, but the second batch It will also be released for half a year. Equipment manufacturers, EPC should focus on this limited poverty alleviation market.
The operation and maintenance market comes in advance
With the landing of the policy, some system installers that do not have projects may disappear over a period of time. Who is the operation and maintenance market that is high, but it is necessary to find the model that suits you. Although the operation and main market is large, it is not easy to do.
Market end contraction. All kinds of exhibitions, forums, etc. need to be reduced, prepared in advance“grain”Coping in advance.
The operation and main market really arrived. With the landing of the policy, some system installers that do not have projects may disappear over a period of time. Who is the operation and maintenance market that is high, but it is necessary to find the model that suits you. Although the operation and main market is large, it is not easy to do.
Belt all the way: Suitable along the country to develop photovoltaic
Although the foreign market is already falling, the market still has,“All the way”Some national power infrastructure along the line is relatively poor, but the sunshine resources are rich and very suitable for development photovoltaic. Some emerging markets such as India, the Middle East, etc. can be launched in advance. In addition, foreign energy storage markets have entered the rapid development stage and cannot be ignored.
The latest documents are strict, but the impact is only in mainland China, and the capacity of PV companies (including components, inverter manufacturing enterprises and power station development enterprises) can completely go out early, layout overseas markets. If this year, the new installed machine in Europe will reach the expected 11GW or even more, you can bring more opportunities to Chinese companies. But we also have to be careful.
If the photovoltaic company is too eager to digest production capacity, go to the stock, reporting ultra-low prices for European projects, which is likely to attract new wave anti-dumping measures.
Photovoltaic + application: vast development space
PV + can expand a variety of applications, have a broad space. For example, fish is complementary, agricultural light complementary, Hanneng Photovoltaic electric vehicle, photovoltaic sharing bicycle, photovoltaic bag, etc. For example, Xi Xin effectively established photovoltaic + rice + fish crabs to symbiotic agricultural models. In 2017, the rice fish crab was synthesized by the field, the acres of 50 kg, 25 kg of crabs, and more than 400 kilograms of rice production. In Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Shanxi Province has 13 photovoltaic oils with peony planting bases,“Photovoltaic + Peony + Beautiful Country Tourism”model.
New Deal should leave a development space for advanced technology and high-quality photovoltaic power generation projects. So, what should the company improve the technology? Experts believe that the technology upgrade of photovoltaic enterprises should start from the integrated production and operation process of photovoltaic data, forming a development model of industrial chain associations and intelligent commercial drivers, which in turn has new industrial ecology. lock up.
The first is big data, the primary role of the big data platform is to trace the traceability, comparable, large data, the most important feature of big data is not to fall into the country, and the big data is to create 90% of the value of 10%. .
Secondly, the big platform for collaborative network, intelligent manufacturing and intelligent business driver: the future market competition, the essence is the use of social collaborative network replacing traditional supply chain management. The two core components of intelligent business: collaborative network and data intelligence, collaborative network is a social division of labor and cooperation innovation mechanism, the core value is a synergistic effect. The collaborative network formed is the ecology we often say.
Furthermore, it is a linear communication industry, and the Internet platform is reconstructed, becoming a real-time interaction, mesh communication pattern, which is the most important first step towards intelligent manufacturing and intelligent business. From the industrial chain to the ecosystem, it means that the exponential growth of the development speed is increased.
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