Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the operation of my country's photovoltaic industry in 2017. In 2017, my country's photovoltaic industry continued to be healthy and healthy. The size of the industrial scale has grown steadily, the technical level is significantly improved, and the production cost is remarkable. The company's benefits continue to be good, and foreign trade keeps stable. Data show that the yield of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery, and components in 2017 increased by 24.7%, 34.3%, 33.3%, 31.7%, respectively. The global scale of production scale of the industry chain has more than 50%, and continues to maintain the world's first place.
In addition, according to the 2017 National Power Industry Statistics, my country's 200.25GW is 130.25 GW at the end of 2017. Combined in 2016 my country's accumulated installed capacity 77.42 GW, 2017 my country's photovoltaic power generation adds machine capacity over 52GW.
In 2017, my country's photovoltaic power generation industry was fully developed in various aspects of industrial scale, technical level, and corporate benefits. But under the brows, in the new 2018, my country's photovoltaic industry is also facing five major problems.
First, production capacity continuous release enterprise carrier
With the continuous outbreak of the photovoltaic industry, the main leading companies in the industry have been full of pussy in recent years. Although the subsidy is declining year by year, the decline in subsidies in recent years is lower than the industry expectations, which guarantees high income levels with high photovoltaic industries. In such a case, the production capacity expansion is started with the major photovoltaic enterprises that taste the sweetness.
In the polysilicon link, the world's first polysilicon supplier Poly Society has more than 70,000 tons last year, and according to the 60,000-ton expansion plan released by the company, it is expected that the Polycrystalline silicon production capacity of Pao Yinxin in 2018 will reach 9 -11 million tons.
In 2017, Tongwei Group also has a layout in polysilicon. In 2017, the company's polysilicon production capacity is 20,000 tons. According to the plan, Polycrystalline silicon production will reach 7-80,000 tons in 2018. The two companies are released in 2018, and their polycrystalline silicon production can reach 16-19 million tons. What is the concept? In 2017, my country's polysilicon's total production was only 242,000 tons!
After watching the silicon wafer, the capacity of the silicon wafer is currently 20GW polycrystalline + 1GW single crystal, and with the 2018 NGR briefing technology is fully adopted, the SHIX's silicon production capacity will reach the horror of 25GW. According to the "Single Crystal Silicon Business Three Years (2018-2020) Strategic Plan" recently announced, Longki Shares will strive to increase the production capacity of single crystal wafer in 2018 to 28GW on the basis of the 15GW of the silicon wafer in 2017. . Only the two companies will reach 53GW in the production capacity of the silicon link in 2018, and my country's total production capacity of 87GW in 2017.
In addition, there are corresponding expansion plans in the battery segments and components linkages, Tongwei, Atas, Xixin Integration, Jingke.
The sustained release of these capacities will increase market supply and demand, but the corresponding demand side may not be able to grow synchronously. At present, although the photovoltaic industry is overall, the new market scale of international and domestic markets has slowdown. In this regard, this large-scale capacity expansion of photovoltaic enterprises may cause excess. Once the production capacity is excess, the price of the upper and downstream industry chain will decline sharply, and large enterprises may support the scene with superior competitiveness and capacity advantages, but SMEs will face a big challenge. On the other hand, the production capacity of large enterprises will also crowd the living space of small enterprises, and the industry competition is increased while eliminating backward production capacity.
Overall, the expansion of the company is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it can strengthen the industrial integration speed, reduce production costs; on the other hand, it is possible to invest overheat, overheated production capacity. If companies do not avoid, in the next two or three years, overcapacity may be highlighted.
Second, industrial technology innovation needs to be strengthened
In recent years, with the popularization of black silicon technology, PERC technology, double-sided technology, the efficiency of solar cells has been greatly improved. As the core component of solar power generation, the battery efficiency is the maintenance of the industrial cost, which is also the most important driving force for the decline in industry costs.
However, it is worrying that although in 2017, my country has led the world in the fifth consecutive year, but currently hot black silicon technology, PERC technology, heterojunction and other battery technology originated from foreign countries. Most of these battery technologies are the first time of foreign companies or institutes, the initial development of the initial stage, just in China's market. In fact, China has the most comprehensive and most comprehensive photovoltaic craft industry chain worldwide, and the latest technology often develops rapidly under the integration of strong industrial chain in China. Throughout the R & D and development of battery technology, China has been strong than ten years ago, and China's photovoltaic enterprises currently maintain most battery efficiency records. In the past 2017, the light is in the single crystal PERC battery, some companies have broken the world record three times. But it is necessary to clearly, the techniques of most new batteries are introduced abroad, and some world records are obtained by direct acquisition. Overall, China's research in new batteries is also gap in abroad,“All-takenism”Not a long time.
On the other hand, my country has a gap between the process, production equipment, R & D equipment, etc. in high-efficiency batteries, especially the process, and equipment determines product performance, almost also determines the battery efficiency, and integrated costs. It has to be recognized that the key equipment required for my country, including black silicon, PERC, N-type technology is still relying on import, which weakens the capacity of the PV industry in my country.
In addition, my country's photovoltaic products are mainly crystalline batteries, while 90% of the crystalline silicon battery is used in the power station. But in fact, from the application, solar power generation can be applied to various fields such as construction, automobiles, ships, and highways. In addition to the crystal silicon, the thin film battery needs to develop as soon as possible, enrich the solar power product structure, so that the photovoltaic presence is a diverse situation. This will open up a diverse market.
Third, abandoning light limit does not be underestimated
Although a series of means such as the distribution of new power plant indicators will be restricted by affordable acquisition, the abandonment of the light limit is mitigated in 2017, but the abandonment of the photovoltaic electricity may be recreated again in the case of continuous expansion of the electric station.
First, the abandonment of the abandoned electricity in the northwest is only alleviated, but has not been completely solved. and“ease”The cost is the development of the photovoltaic industry in the northwest to almost stagnant. my country has always been developed in centralized photovoltaic power plant, but in recent years, the development of centralized photovoltaic power stations has been obvious, and the main reason is to abandon the light limit. We prefer to see that centralized photovoltaic power plants and distributed photovoltaic power plants are interspersed, synergistic, rather than this long. Abandoning the light shift has become a photovoltaic industry for four or five years.“Heart disease”However, it has never been resolved. There is three reasons three, the first, new energy power generation development speeds significantly exceed the replacement speed of new energy power generation on traditional coal power; the second, the western region is rich, but the level of gas is limited, however my country However, there is no formation of East, China and Western China, and the construction of transmission channels is seriously lagging; third, existing grid peak ability and lack of flexibility, inter-provincial transactions have barriers.
Secondly, due to the serious abandonment of the light limit, the center of photovoltaic development in the country has gradually transferred to the Middle East. In the past two years, the distribution of the Middle East, the centralized installed installed installed emergence, and in the case of policy dividends, the industry's polarity continues to be good, the Central Eastern's photovoltaic development may repeat the same mistakes, and once again abandoned Light limit problem.
The existence of the existence of light limit is mainly because there is nothing to prepare for the development speed of new energy power in the electricity market. Just like suddenly have a table of delicacies, but because I just finished three bowl overnight, I can only pour the delicious dishes. To solve the problem of abandonment, it is not a way to suppress the development of the photovoltaic industry. The most important thing is to speed up the replacement speed of new energy power generation for traditional coal power, and then strengthen the construction of the power grid, the transmission channel, and eliminate the provincial room. Barriers, establish a national collaborative amazing market.
Fourth, PV subsidies are more intensified
Perhaps this is the reason why new energy develops is too rapid, including new energy subsidies, including photovoltaic subsidies, and recent snowballs like a snowball, and so far does not issue more effective policies and methods to solve this problem. . The huge gap of subsidy funds makes most photovoltaic power generation projects to obtain subsidies in time, which has caused great funding pressure to enterprises. Once the company's overall carrier of a certain industrial chain, the funding issue will link to the entire industry. In addition, since the photovoltaic power station is still in an emerging industry, it is difficult to obtain bank financing, loans, and photovoltaic companies often have a strison because of subsidies. In the absence of new policies, the PV subsidy arrears will always exist and become one of the primary issues of restricting industry development.
V. Trade disputes continue, photovoltaic“go out”Prospects are not optimistic
In 2017, China has become the first national first country in the fifth consecutive year. According to the data, my country's global proportion of China's production scale in China has exceeded 50% in China, where silicon production accounted for 83% of the world, and component production accounted for 71% of global production. my country has not only become a veritable world's first largest photovoltaic market, but also has great control over the global photovoltaic market. On the other hand, the photovoltaic market in Europe and the United States, Japan has begun to shrink. Europe's largest photovoltaic enterprises in Europe announce that SUNIVA, one of the largest components companies in the United States, also announced bankrupt; According to reports, 2017 Japanese photovoltaic enterprises have reached 68 Home, a new high. in this way“Ice Fire two days”The situation inevitably allows other countries to red, even if the photovoltaic industry in Europe and the United States is mainly due to problems, they also blame China. And thus started again and again“Double reverse”And trade survey.
On January 23 (East Time January 22, 2018) Special tariffs are collected. The main target of this trade protection measures are China; on January 5, the General Administration of India's Protection Measures issued an announcement. It is recommended to collect 70% from the solar photovoltaic products entering India (including crystal silicon batteries and components and thin film batteries and components). Price tax as a temporary security measures, 200 days. Temporary security measures for India are still China. This is just the trade disputes suffered by my country's photovoltaic industry since January this year. If the timeline is expanded to a year, five years, my country's photovoltaic industry is constantly constantly“Double reverse”It grows up.
At present, based on the control of the global market in my country, relying on the vigorous development of the domestic market, the closure of individual overseas markets does not form a large impact on the entire industry. But if all countries began to conduct China“Double reverse”Other trade measures, the photovoltaic industry in my country will be difficult to continue. Trade friction, hinders my country's photovoltaic“go out”The pace will also lead to rapid rise in global photovoltaic applications, which is not conducive to promoting global photovoltaic applications.
In this case, my country's photovoltaic industry should actively develop international emerging markets, reduce the degree of dependence on individual markets; one side needs to develop the latest technology, reduce costs, use powerful competitiveness as their own“Knocking on the door”, Continuing the sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry.
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