source:Geerady       date: 2022-06-17
When will the spring of the industry will appear, it is determined in many variables, including the expectations and behaviors of the enterprise, market competition, industrial policies, etc. From these variables, although it is difficult to get the conclusions ending in winter, at least it can be inferred that in order to end the winter as soon as possible, how to do in spring, policy makers and businesses.
From the current situation of the industry, the over-capacity of production capacity will lead to price war or cost competition. The competition will lead to product prices below the cost line. Some enterprises will be eliminated by the loss. In fact, under the strong rectification of policies, a large number of companies have exited, and the rest of the enterprises have a certain strength of companies, and they will have the time to expand against the market, so that the time required for these companies will inevitably.
It is spring after winter. Unlike nature, it will last for a long time in the winter, often unpredictable. For the lead battery industry, there is an optimist that it is already the coldest in winter, soon will be spring; there are pessimists say that this winter may be relatively long, and spring is rid of.
The desire to improve in industrial concentration is not implemented in accordance with other industry integration. The general approach is to support large enterprises, eliminate small businesses, but after small businesses are eliminated, the number of large companies is more, and they are not willing to go out, then the industry's further integration will be difficult, and it is likely to be in winter. Conversely, if there are a few companies in the industry very strong, other companies are difficult to see their back, then they may eventually form an oligarch pattern.
For the lead battery industry, the final formation of the oligopoly may be the expectations of all parties. On the one hand, the company has achieved great strength, and on the other hand, the pollution problem is also easy to solve. But you must see it, this is a more long-term goal. Considering that the number of enterprises has contracted significantly, the goal of this round of price war is actually mainly eliminated medium-sized enterprises, leaving big companies. However, large enterprises exposed to expansion is also very“ferocious”Even if the medium-sized enterprise is eliminated, the industry will still have a serious overcapacity, and further integration is still hopeless.
Therefore, the lead storage battery industry must truly go out of the dilemma and must rely on the industrial policy. First, the market order should be maintained, so that the eliminars in the policy goal are really eliminated. It is understood that there are some“Guerrilla”Underground factory, they are unlicensed, low cost, and even transport costs in local regional markets, after-sales service is timely“Advantage”This also brings a small pressure to the industry.
Second, the industry and merger should be promoted and the exit of SMEs should be accelerated. Some companies are reluctant to quit, mainly because of new equipment, before investment has not been returned, although it will lose money, but the loss of suspension of production is greater. In order to promote the mergers and reorganizations between the enterprises, on the one hand, it is necessary to set a reasonable total capacity target for the industry, limit the excessive expansion of homogenization, and the mergers and acquisitions must become an important way for enterprises' extension development; on the other hand, it should be transumated by the enterprise The discontinuation provides appropriate funding support.
Looking forward to the future, the lead battery industry may also usher in a coldest stage in winter, but“Without a cold, which is a plum”As long as the industry authorities are generally issued, the industry will have to usher in a new spring.
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