Shanghai lead recently returning part of the early rise, we believe that the market is expected to return to the upward trend, because first, the supply of lead concentrates is tight, and the smelting plant has certain difficulties, and due to smelting loss, refineryProduction is not high. Second, the downstream main battery factory inventory is normal, the sales are smooth, and there is no existence, the small battery factory inventory is high, and the sales are not smooth.
In the third quarter, Shanghai-lead prices were expected to drive in the peak season of the power-based battery, and further closer to the basis of five.
Industrial chain source head tension lead concentrate supply
The lead industry chain is short, and the other basic metals is simple, so that the information conduction is more common. Lead upstream raw material lead concentrate supply shortages, can be said to be a promoubted consensus. From this year's lead concentration, the processing costs continue to be lowered, from 1800 from the beginning of the year.
Now 1500, also reflects the tension of the upstream supply feeder raw material from the side. In terms of supply and demand analysis, if the supply is reduced, the price needs to rise as soon as possible to meet the balance of supply and demand. The lead price is not hot in the first half of 14, even declined. Corner of supply and demand analysis from industrial chain
From the perspective, the contradictory concentration point is downstream, lead-acid battery factory. The shortcomings of the downstream demand have led to the inconsistency of price conduction, and the lead price is not big. Since the beginning of 14, a large number of battery factories have reflected that inventory is high, sales weakness, demand. and
The national industrial structure has also increased the lead-acid battery factory, big fish eating small fish, small fish eat shrimp, merger and recombination. Make strong people stronger, weak. Thereby also created two giants, ultra-thrilling, and heaven, and the output of the two can occupy the powerful battery.
Eighthles. And the main manufacturers such as start-type batteries, southern capital, sails, camels. With the gradual saturation of consumer demand, the battery factory is also a price as a weapon and assaults to occupy the market share. Further aggravation of the two-level differentiation of the battery industry. Small and medium-sized battery factory, due to rules
Dimensions, efficiency, etc., cost control is unfavorable. Large and ultra-large battery factories fully utilize, scale advantages, from prices to the market share of small and medium-sized battery factories.
Large battery giant stock is smoothly sold
At present, the information transmitted by the lead industry chain is tension upstream raw materials, and the downstream demand is not enhanced. Is the downstream demand not to inex into a high inventory in the industry? The answer is that most small and medium-sized batteries are very difficult, and the inventory is high. And oligarchs are further
The share of the market. This is also a good manifestation from the accounting report from the company.
From Chart 1, it is clearly reflected the power-type battery giants, ultraviovascular, and business revenue have grown high-speed growth since 10 years, with an average of twice aspects of speed growth. On the one hand, it is benefited from the rapid development of the lead-acid battery industry, and on the other hand, thanks to the country.
The overall economic growth, the improvement in the living standards of the people, and the rapid improvement of electric vehicle demand. There is reason to believe that 14 years, Tianneng, Super Wei, annual sales income conservative estimates increased by 10% or have certain grasp. In other words, demand is still guaranteed.
So what is the battery inventory of the key lead-acid battery factory? The inventory of large battery plants is a relatively dynamic inventory that cannot be simply intuitive. The growth of production is also normal, and it is also normal. So the author takes place in inventory, the sales revenue
The historical value is coming on the inventory of large battery factories. The negative sound of the lead-acid battery industry since this year is not in the ear, and if we subdivided the negative news of the stock, it is from the small and medium-sized battery factory. Large battery factory, such as Tianneng, although the lawsuit is entangled in and the downstream
Processors turned their face, ultravine, and issued a profit warning. But there is no news on stocks in stocks and sales. The author also learned from the battery factory, the finished stock is normal. Battar battery manufacturers, especially, camels, the latest quarter stock / sales year-on-year
It also dropped 5 percentage points, lowered from 73% to 68%. Sail, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, from 78% to 74%. The South Budan rose by 13 percentage points, from 69% to 82%. This long, price or key points for consumers. More low price, market
The field occupancy rate is still very effective.
Terminal demand is still expected to rise in the price of lead prices
In this regard, due to the price reduction promotion of large battery plants, the sales of small and medium-sized battery plants are difficult, and the stock backlog is high. But large and ultra-large main battery factory finished product inventory is still in a normal level, and there is no inventory that is high. Small and medium battery
The factory negative news, over-masking the real situation of the industry. And overall, even if the large-scale battery factory price reduction promotion, it is also carried out in a certain profit, and the company has a meager profit continues to survive. Therefore, the demand for colonite is still guaranteed.
, Only the changes in the market share of the manufacturer market. Therefore, in the context of the battery inventory, Shanghai-lead price is expected to drive the power-based battery consumption, and further closer to the basis of five.
About the author: Yang Li, New Lake Futures Assistant Researcher, Bachelor of Business Administration, Leeds University, Master of Finance and Economics of Olu University. There is a more solid economic theory basis. During the study period, I have traveled in the United States and Eastern Europe, and the management of Western Enterprises and Socialism.
The transition economy has a more in-depth understanding and learning. The varieties of the study were the research of Shanghai lead, paying attention to lead fundamental research, and strive to investigate and investigate the lead industry chain. Recommend: LiFePO4 Battery Manufacturer Energy storage battery Manufacturer Integrated machine energy storage battery series Manufacturer Lead lithium battery Manufacturer Outdoor Backup Battery Manufacturer Portable outdoor power supply Manufacturer Power battery Manufacturer Powerwall LiFePO4 Battery Manufacturer Battery rack Manufacturers Telecom LiFePO4 Battery Manufacturer Wall mounted battery storage Manufacturer China Lifepo4 Battery
